Bitcoin’s price chart has settled around $60,148, barely slipping in the last 24 hours. At the same time, the Fear & Greed index has plunged to an “Extreme Fear” reading of 12, a level that historically aligns with the start of a recovery phase. Cycle analysts point out that past Bitcoin rallies have tended to bottom roughly twelve months after the previous peak, which in this case would place the next major trough in the autumn of 2026.
The current market backdrop adds nuance to that timing. ETF flows have been volatile—July’s “worst‑ever ETF month” saw a sharp pull‑back, while XRP ETFs remain buoyant despite large outflows from BTC and ETH funds. Meanwhile, the Pi Network token’s modest 5 % dip and El Salvador’s looming accounting review for its Bitcoin reserve could stir additional short‑term price pressure. Together, these factors create a landscape where a dip in October could be both plausible and potentially deep enough to attract bargain‑seeking traders.
For everyday crypto participants, the key takeaway is not to chase the bottom blindly but to watch the confluence of sentiment, ETF activity, and regulatory news. An extreme‑fear environment often precedes a buying opportunity, yet the market can remain choppy for weeks. Keeping an eye on the Fear & Greed index, ETF inflow trends, and any policy shifts—especially those affecting large holders like El Salvador—will help gauge whether the projected October trough is materialising or merely a theoretical reference point.