Bitcoin’s price is currently hovering around $62,800, a figure that sits comfortably above the 24‑hour low but still far below the two Glassnode‑identified support levels. The True Market Mean, a long‑term average that many traders use as a benchmark for a healthy bottom, sits near $76,600. The short‑term holder cost basis, which represents the average price of recent long‑term positions, is roughly $72,200. Because Bitcoin remains below both, the market is still in the “later stages of a bottoming process,” according to CryptoSlate’s analysis.
For retail holders, this means that the daily loss of roughly $280 million—calculated from the difference between the current price and the short‑term cost basis—continues to erode their positions. Even though the price has bounced up to $64,400 and then retraced to $62,700, it hasn’t yet broken the critical support zones that signal a more stable bottom. Until Bitcoin crosses the short‑term cost basis, long‑term holders will likely keep seeing incremental losses.
The broader market context adds another layer of caution. Bitcoin’s 24‑hour change is a modest 1 % rise, and the fear‑greed index sits at 22, indicating extreme fear among investors. At the same time, the crypto ecosystem is expanding with new derivatives—such as the options on BTC, ETH, and SOL being rolled out by Brazil’s B3 exchange—suggesting that volatility may persist as traders look for new hedging tools. Retail investors should keep an eye on whether Bitcoin can sustain a move above the short‑term cost basis and, eventually, near the True Market Mean. A sustained breakout above these levels would signal that the bottom is forming and could reduce the daily loss pressure on long‑term holders.