Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor, declined to comment on the July rate decision during a recent conference in Sintra. His silence underscores the uncertainty that still surrounds the Fed’s policy direction. For retail crypto holders, this lack of clarity means that risk‑aversion can remain high, potentially keeping price swings in the market.
At the moment, Bitcoin is trading around $59,369, up 1.2% over the last 24 hours, while Ethereum sits near $1,596, up 2%. Despite these gains, the fear‑greed index sits at a low 11, classified as “Extreme Fear.” This suggests that investors are still wary of macro‑economic shocks, including potential Fed rate hikes. In such an environment, crypto can behave like a risk asset, with price movements reflecting broader market sentiment.
What to watch next? The Fed’s July meeting will likely provide the first concrete signal on whether rates will rise, stay the same, or fall. A rate hike could tighten liquidity and push risk‑seeking assets, including crypto, downward. Conversely, a pause might keep the current mild upside momentum. Retail investors should also keep an eye on institutional signals—such as the new nonprofit focused on Ethereum adoption—and infrastructure developments like Morpho’s expansion, which could help cushion crypto from macro‑risk volatility.